As Thanksgiving approaches, the domestic box office is gearing up for a spectacular five-day weekend, thanks to a remarkable trio of films: Disney’s “Moana 2,” Universal’s “Wicked,” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II.” Industry experts forecast that this year’s Thanksgiving turnout could reach as high as $200 million from Wednesday to Sunday, potentially making it one of the most lucrative holidays for movie theaters since the onset of the pandemic. This bodes well not only for studios but also for theaters that have struggled to attract audiences in recent years.
The combination of these three films offers a diverse range of offerings, catering to various audience demographics. “Moana 2” continues the beloved story of its Polynesian princess, appealing to families with children. Meanwhile, “Wicked” draws in fans of Broadway and musicals with its enchanting story, and “Gladiator II” appeals to action enthusiasts looking for drama and historical intrigue. Experts predict that the synergy between these films could lead to record-breaking box office results.
Historically, Thanksgiving has been a key period for box office earnings, with previous years seeing impressive returns. In pre-pandemic times, the 2018 holiday weekend remains one for the record books, earning approximately $315 million with significant titles such as “Ralph Breaks the Internet” and “Creed II.” The second highest Thanksgiving weekend earned close to $294 million in 2013, showcasing the holiday’s potential for substantial box office sales.
However, since the pandemic reshaped the landscape of cinema, generating over $200 million during Thanksgiving has become a rarity. The last time this milestone was achieved was in 2019. According to Comscore, the industry’s recovery efforts and strategic release schedules are put to the test this holiday season, with “Moana 2,” “Wicked,” and “Gladiator II” providing a unique opportunity to reignite box office enthusiasm.
Industry analysts project that this Thanksgiving weekend could herald a resurgence for movie theaters, emphasizing the significance of this time of year. Paul Dergarabedian, a senior media analyst at Comscore, highlighted that the holiday serves as an essential indicator for year-end performance. A successful Thanksgiving can pave the way for a strong conclusion to the calendar’s box office, shaping perceptions of the industry’s annual outcomes.
It’s worth noting that Disney entertainment has historically dominated this festive box office period. Although recent animated features from the studio underperformed post-pandemic, “Moana 2” has unique advantages that may set it apart. With its predecessor achieving significant streaming success, audience expectations have been elevated, creating a promising atmosphere for its theatrical debut.
The Friday through Sunday timeframe is critical not just for immediate financial returns but also for re-establishing confidence in the cinema experience. The industry has been searching for a “perfect storm” of releases that combines all-audience appeal—a balancing act that has proven challenging in recent years. Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango, emphasized that the combination of major releases this Thanksgiving presents an exceptional opportunity for theaters.
For Disney, securing a robust opening for “Moana 2” could validate the company’s strategies in the animation space. After stumbling with films like “Strange World,” which received a lukewarm welcome, the imminent release of “Moana 2” could signal a return to form. Furthermore, the film’s success can influence future strategies concerning content creation, marketing, and distribution in a post-pandemic world.
The Thanksgiving box office this year looks promising. With three major films poised to draw significant audiences, it could mark a turning point for the film industry. As it seeks to recover from the pandemic’s impact, the success of “Moana 2,” “Wicked,” and “Gladiator II” could lay the groundwork for a more triumphant cinematic landscape in the coming years. The stage is set for a holiday weekend that may not only break records but also rekindle a love for the theater experience.